BOJ Surprises, BOE on Tap, Trade Worries Weigh on Stocks

<br /> BOJ Surprises, BOE on Tap, Trade Worries Weigh on Stocks – Marc to Market<br />




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The Bank of England meeting concludes a run of major central bank
meetings over the past fortnight.
  The BOE is widely expected to join the Bank of Canada in
raising rates.  The Federal Reserve and the ECB were content to do and say
nothing new. 
The Bank of Japan signaled
its willingness to accept greater volatility in its 10-year yield, which also
currently means a steeper yield curve, and made small adjustments to minimize
some of the unintended consequences.
  By doing so, coupled with its forward guidance, the BOJ
underscored its commitment to maintain its broad course indefinitely.
However, the BOJ surprised
investors today by buying 5-10 year bond even though the 10-year yield was well
within the band at around 14.5 bp. 
The BOJ bought about JPY400 bln (~$3.6 bln).  There had been
some talk that the BOJ would slow the rise in yields if they moved beyond 15
bp.  The purchases were also unusual in that 1) it was not conducted at a
fixed rate as its other defensive operations and 2) it occurred on the same day
that the MOF sold bonds of the same maturity, something the BOJ had indicated
it would avoid.  The BOJ is to buy bonds tomorrow are part of its
pre-announced schedule. 
The dollar has been confined to about a quarter of a yen range
above JPY111.50. 
 There
is a JPY111.75 option for $435 mln and a JPY112 option for $1.8 bln that expire
today. The 10-year JGB yield is little changed from yesterday at 11.5 bp,
despite the intraday volatility.   
China signaled with its
fiscal and financial support that it would
try to offset the economic impact of the US tariffs.
  In a dialectic way, this is an
affirmation through negation, which is to say, that China by seeking to offset
the impact, Chinese officials recognize that the trade pressure will remain. 
The reason it will remain is that China will not capitulate.
To the extent that the US
trade team has experience, it is with Japan in the 1980s.
  What worked on Japan will simply not work on China.   There are
two main reasons.  First,  the US had more points of pressure on
Japan, including but not limited to defense.  Second, the US companies did
not have a much direct investment in
Japan.  Foreign companies, in contrast, including US companies, played an
instrumental role in Chinese economic development since the early 1980s. 
 China is not only the largest trading partner for many Asian countries
and emerging markets economies more broadly, but it is the largest or one of
the largest markets for US icons like GM, Apple, Starbucks, and Boeing. 
If a couple of
aspirins don’t get rid of your headache, will half the bottle work? 
 US negotiators claim to be surprised
that China to not capitulate to a threat of 10% tariff on $200 bln of Chinese
exports.  Trump threatened a tariff of
$500 bln of Chinese exports, which is practically
all the US imports from China.  Do US officials believe that raising the
10% tariff to 25% will force China to give in to US demands?
Investors so far do not seem
to be reacting consistently on a macro level to the trade tensions, but individual companies that could be hurt
seem to have been punished by investors.
  The July manufacturing PMIs were
mostly softer, and it is easy to draw the narrative line to connect it with trade.  Most economists recognize that a
number of one-off factors probably boosted US growth to 4.1% in Q2, 
Annualized quarterly growth above 4% has been recorded in at three other
quarters since the end of the Great Recession  Even with the debt-financed
stimulus, forecasts for Q3 are for a return toward the recent average of 2.5%,
which is both the eight- and 20-quarter average.  That said, the Atlanta
Fed’s GDPNow begins August seeing Q3 tracking 5%.
Say what one wants about the shift in the Fed’s
characterization of US growth as “strong” instead of “solid,” an apparent hat tip to the Q2 GDP, but
expectations for Fed policy has not changed.
  Given that September meeting is late in the month,
the October fed funds futures contract offers a cleaner read, and it was unchanged at 2.145%, unchanged from
last week and half a basis point lower than on Tuesday.   The January
2019 contract, which offers a cleaner read on the December contract, implies
half a basis point less than the previous pre-Fed and end of last week. 
Nearly everyone expects the
BOE to hike rates today.
 
Sterling could fall more than a cent if the BOE officials surprise the market
with a stand pat decision.  A unanimous decision would the most support
for sterling but barring a surprise, the market’s reaction will be a function
of the headlines from the minutes, which are released immediately, and the
quarterly inflation report.  In May, the BOE shaved the inflation
forecasts for this year and the next two by 0.1%.  It also cut this year’s
growth forecast to 1.4% from 1.8% in February.
The BOE projected three
hikes over the next three years.
 The BOE says that it is incorporating market expectations
but the two are not independent.  Investors are trying to divine what the
BOE will likely do.  Also, investors realize that there will be a new
governor in a year’s time.  After a disappointing manufacturing PMI, the
UK’s construction PMI surprised on the upside (55.8 vs. 53.1 in June). 
 The service sector PMI will be released tomorrow. 
While the euro has fallen
each day the ECB has met this year, sterling’s
performance on BOE meeting days is mixed.
  It rose in February and June (0.2% and 0.5%
respectively) and fell in March and May (-0.3% and -0.2%).  In line with
the firmer dollar tone, sterling was sold
to a nine-session low a little below $1.3070.  There is a $1.31 option for
nearly GBP600 mln that expires today. Above there, a band of resistance is seen between $1.3120 and $1.3150.  The
upper end houses a GBP400 mln expiring option and retracement objectives. 
The 20-day moving average is just above it. 
The euro too is trading
heavily. 
 It
slipped a little below $1.1620 to reach its lowest level since July 18. 
There was only one-day last month that
the euro traded below $1.16 and it has not closed below there since last
June.  Several maturing options that may
help reinforce support near there today.  There are 1.1 bln euros struck
between $1.1600 and $1.1610 that will be cut
today.  A $1.1625 strike for almost 685 mln euros also expires and another
nearly 850 mln option at $1.1650.  Depending precisely how the bottom of
the pennant is drawn, it appears to come
in around $1.1600 today. 
Equity markets are under
pressure today. 
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index shed 1.25%, the most here in Q2 to close at a
two-week low.  No market was spared, but
China and Hong Kong markets let the carnage, falling more than 2%.  The Nikkei and Topix both fell 1% and closed
on their lows.  European shares are
heavy, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 off about two-thirds of a percent in late morning
activity.  Nearly all the sectors are lower but real estate and consumer staples.  The benchmark is testing the uptrend line
formed last month, and the 20-day moving
average both found near 387.
Bond markets are mixed.  Germany’s
10-year yield is slightly softer, while France is slightly firmer.  Italy’s benchmark is under pressure, with
yields rising a couple of basis points, while Spain’s 10-year yield is slightly
softer.  The US 10-year is hovering a little below
3%.  

Disclaimer


BOJ Surprises, BOE on Tap, Trade Worries Weigh on Stocks
BOJ Surprises, BOE on Tap, Trade Worries Weigh on Stocks

Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on

August 02, 2018


Rating: 5

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