Expert Analysis

Week Ahead: Softness in US Real Sector, Key UK and Canadian Data, and China’s Q3 GDP

Expert Analysis, Macro / By

The markets absorbed two shocks last week. The war in Israel that seems to know of no restraint underpinned oil prices and appeared to help boost gold and the Swiss franc, the only G10 currency to appreciate against the dollar. The other was the continued deluge of US Treasury supply, the coupon auctions that tailed …

Week Ahead: Softness in US Real Sector, Key UK and Canadian Data, and China’s Q3 GDP Read More »

Capital Markets are Calm though Anxiety Continues to Run High

$USD, Expert Analysis / By

Overview: The risk that the war in Israel spreads remains palatable, and several observers have warned of the greatest risks of a world war in a generation. Still, the capital markets remain relatively calm. The US dollar is softer after closing last week firmly. The only G10 currency unable to post corrective upticks today is the …

Capital Markets are Calm though Anxiety Continues to Run High Read More »

Markets Remain on Edge

$USD, Expert Analysis / By

Overview:  The markets remain on edge. The press reports US President Biden is planning an imminent trip to Israel while Iran warns of “multiple fronts” against Israel if the attacks on Gaza continued. The dollar, which was offered yesterday, is better bid today. Still, the capital markets are relatively quiet. Even the Swiss franc, which was …

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Geopolitical Tensions Lift Oil and Gold, but little Sign of Haven Buying in FX

$USD, Expert Analysis / By

Overview: US economic data surprised to the upside yesterday, and although interest rates rose as one would expect, the dollar’s initial gains were pared, and the Dollar Index finished slightly lower on the day. This seemed, in some respects, to echo how the greenback reacted to the recent jobs report. However, then, interest rates softened, but …

Geopolitical Tensions Lift Oil and Gold, but little Sign of Haven Buying in FX Read More »

Greenback Remains Bid and the Market has not Given Up on JPY150

$USD, Expert Analysis / By

Overview:  The greenback did not strengthen yesterday in Asian and European turnover despite the deteriorating conditions in the Middle East, but it did rally as North American participants entered the fray. Indeed, the Dollar Index rose from a marginal new four-day low to a marginally new four-day high. The safe haven bid seen in gold and …

Greenback Remains Bid and the Market has not Given Up on JPY150 Read More »

The Dollar Continues to Press Against JPY150; Risk Off Ahead of the Weekend

$USD, Expert Analysis / By

Overview: True to the market’s penchant, it heard a dovish Fed Chair Powell yesterday. He seemed to suggest that the bar to another hike was high. This helped cap the 10-year yield just in front of 5.00% and allowed foreign currencies to recover against the dollar. The US two-year yield reversed lower after rising above 5.25%. …

The Dollar Continues to Press Against JPY150; Risk Off Ahead of the Weekend Read More »

Week Ahead: Q3 US GDP to Underscore Divergence, while ECB and Bank of Canada Stand Pat

Expert Analysis, Macro / By

The US dollar was mixed last week. One would have thought, based on the geopolitical tensions, the stronger than expected US economic data that resulted in upward revisions to Q3 GDP forecasts and a more than 30 bp surge in US 10-year yields, the greenback would have performed better. The Dollar Index fell by almomst …

Week Ahead: Q3 US GDP to Underscore Divergence, while ECB and Bank of Canada Stand Pat Read More »

Equities Retreat while the Dollar is Confined to Narrow Ranges

$USD, Expert Analysis / By

Overview: Equities are mostly lower, while bonds have risen. The dollar is trading in narrow ranges and mixed against the G10 currencies and emerging markets. Most Asian bourses were lower. The Nikkei (though not the Topix) and Hong Kong were the chief exceptions. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off for the second consecutive day, in what looks …

Equities Retreat while the Dollar is Confined to Narrow Ranges Read More »

Ueda Chairs First BOJ Meeting, and US and EMU Provide First Estimate of Q1 GDP: The Week Ahead

Expert Analysis, Macro / By

As April draws to a close, the systemic stress in the banking sector continues to subside, and the market is turning its attention to likely rate hikes by Federal Reserve and European Central Bank in early May. Although, as in March, the market sees the May hike to 5.25% to be the last Fed hike. …

Ueda Chairs First BOJ Meeting, and US and EMU Provide First Estimate of Q1 GDP: The Week Ahead Read More »

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