Constructive US Jobs, but Where Do the Euro Bulls make a Stand?

The US created 209k jobs in July and jobs growth in June was revised
higher (+9k) to 231k. 
The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%, matching the cyclical low set in May.  This is all the more impressive because the
participation rate also ticked up (62.9% from 62.8%).  The underemployment
rate was unchanged at 8.6%.  

Average hourly earnings rose the 0.3% the market had expected, but due to
rounding, this kept the year-over-year rate at 2.5%. 
  It is the
fourth consecutive month that is has remained at 2.5%.  Earnings growth
average 2.6% last year.  Despite the jobs growth, the fall in the
unemployment and underemployment rates, wage pressure is modest at best. 
Jobs growth was particularly strong in
leisure and hospitality sectors (62k).  Hiring reached five-month highs in manufacturing, education
and health services.  

Canada also reported July employment figures.  The unemployment
rate fell to 6.3% from 6.5%, but this was
not as impressive as it looks as the participation rate slipped to 65.7% from 65.9%.  Still, full-time employment was robust.  Canada
added 35.1k full-time positions, which is just above the average from H1
(32.2k).  

Canada and the US reported June trade figures.  Canada’s
merchandise deficit swelled to C$3.6 bln, nearly three times larger than the
median forecast in the Bloomberg survey.  The May deficit was revised to C$1.36 bln from $1.09 bln. 
Exports fell 4.3%, the largest since February 2016.  Imports rose 0.3%.
 

The US trade deficit narrowed to $43.6 bln, which is the smallest short
fall since late last year.  Exports rose 1.2%, boosted by capital
equipment, oil, and soy.
  Imports slipped 0.2%.  Of note, consumer goods imports fell for the
second consecutive month.   Given the small fall of the merchandise
deficit in real terms, it supports a
small upward revision in Q2 GDP.  

The US dollar jumped on the headlines,
and we recognize that technically the dollar’s sell-off is getting stretched
after a four-week slide against the euro
and yen. 
The Canadian dollar is on the verge of snapping a five-week advance.  The Australian and New
Zealand dollars are poised to end a three-week
advance.  The euro’s ascent has been
relentless, and many short, and medium term participants appear to be still inclined to buy
dips.     The odds of a September Fed hike remain remote at
best. 

Disclaimer

Share this post

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on pinterest
Share on print
Share on email