EURUSD, Which way to go?

EURUSD is the most traded currency pair in Forex market thus the ability to gauge where it will be headed in the upcoming weeks plays an important role for most of the speculators out there. This currency pair has been on bearish move since April 2008 which has led to 149 months of downward trend. As it is illustrated on the graph below, the price floor 1.0340 has kept its position as the lowest point to touch and the bulls were successful to gain some power after that. This strong reversal of the price creates a sense of ambiguity for traders about the future direction of EURUSD currency pair. However, we can expect to see a whole new direction in this rally if price can breach from the declining trend line.

The illustration below shows the price level with respect to two Andrews pitchforks and their slopes at two different pivots. As we can see, the price did not reach the median level on the plotted pitchforks and made a breakout from the upper bound in its reversal. Based on the theory of Andrews pitchfork we can expect to see a higher motion in price than its previous move to set around 1.2500.

In the next graph we can see the price trend with respect to Schiff pitchfork. We can see that after multiple testes on the median, the price finally reversed back to the upper bound of this pitchfork. Based on the theory of Andrews pitchfork, if the price can breach the upper bound we can expect it to reach the first warning line at 1.3.

We can observe the price trend that is falling in the last 12 years. If the price breaks out from this trend, it can be the initiation of a new long term trend for this currency pair.

This time we have used a rising Schiff pitchfork and a standard pitchfork. As we can see the price was not able to break out from lower bounds of the pitchforks and was kept at level 1.05. Since the price was highly volatile at the median level we can conclude that the pitchfork is respected. Albeit if the price can breach the ceiling at level 1.25, we can expect it to set at level 1.4 on the median.

The graph below shows Elliott patterns of the price and it is likely to have 5 waves in this up trending rally. The first wave is shown as 1 OR A, followed by the inclining wave 2 OR B which is now within 3 OR C. The targets of this wave are shown on the graph.

In figures below we can see the price behavior in series of weekly time frames and its persistent move at the median level. In both of the graphs our targeted level is at 1.3.

In this graph we can see the demand and supply on a point and figure chart. In this model, instead of setting the price against different times we use a price against direction approach to plot the chart.

Share this post

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on pinterest
Share on print
Share on email