FX Consolidation Resolved in Favor of Weaker US Dollar

The robust US jobs report at the end of last week had arrested the down
draft seen the previous week in response to the disappointing Q2 GDP report.
 
The mostly sideways movement has given way to a broader pullback today. 
The greenback is heavier against all the major and most emerging market
currencies today. 

There does not appear to be a fundamental driver, which does not mean
that the dollar’s losses cannot be extended

The US economic calendar is light with mortgage applications, the JOLTS report
on job openings, and the monthly federal budget, which do not have the heft to
change trends.  It is true that the probability of a Fed hike in September
has eased to 24% from 26% at the end of last week, but for all practical
purposes, it is a difference without significance.  

If there is an overarching theme, it is that rates will be lower for
longer, globally. 
This may be
underwriting risk taking, though equity markets are mixed.  Still, the
MSCI Emerging Market equity index is up 0.4%,m extending its streak to the
fifth consecutive session.  It is at its best level since July
2015.   Although the Japanese and Chinese markets slipped lower
earlier today, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index also extended its advance. 
Since July 22, the index has only been down in two sessions.  

European bourses are mixed, and this is leaving the Dow Jones Stoxx 600
practically unchanged in late-European morning turnover. 
 
Financials are the strongest sector (+0.4%), and within it, the insurance
sector is leading with a 0.8% advance and banks are up 0.4%.  The FTSE’s
Italian bank index is up 1.4% to extend its recovery into a fifth
session.  

Bond markets are broadly higher.  Asian bonds played catch-up
after yesterday’s strong advance in Europe and the US.  Benchmark 10-year
yields in Europe are off another 2-3 bp.  Gilts continue to outperform. In
response to buying about GBP52 mln less
of the 7-15-year bucket than it wanted to yesterday, the BOE indicated today
that it would simply add it back into the second half of the program, the
details of which it will announce in November.  

On Monday, dealers offered 3.6x more short-term bonds (3-7 year duration)
than the BOE wanted to buy. 
Yesterday, however, dealers did not offer
the full amount.   Today’s reverse auction for GBP1.17 bln 15-year+
bonds will be closely watched
Owners of those longer-term bonds may be reluctant to part with them because it
is difficult to replace those yields.      The UK
10-year bond yield is off five bp today
to 0.53%.  A week ago it was yielding 0.82%, and on the eve of the referendum, it was 1.30%.   The
15-year yield is off eight bp to
0.97%.  

In the Quarterly Inflation Report, the BOE argued that while monetary
policy could cushion the economic impact, it was limited.
  It seemed
like it was a call for fiscal support.  Today’s BOE Agents (~270 business
contacts surveyed from late-June through late-July). Survey found what other surveys have reported.  Business
services growth has softened, and
consumer spending has slowed.  Commercial real estate was “materially
affected” by the Brexit decision.   Would it be too much like
helicopter money for the UK government to
have a small fiscal stimulus program and fund it with long-dated Gilts? 

Beginning with last week’s  stronger
than expected increase in cash wages
, Japan’s data has been surprising
to the upside.
  Today it was June machine orders, a volatile series to
be sure.  They jumped 8.3%, more than twice the gain anticipated by the median guesstimate.   Separately,
Japan reported that producer prices were flat last month.  It may not
sound impressive, but it is only the second month since May 2015 that producer
prices did not fall.  

After spending yesterday inside
Monday’s range, the dollar was sold in Asia and the European morning.
 
It has seemed to carve out a shelf in the second half of last week in the
JPY100.70-JPY100.85 area, which appears set to be
retested

There are three other developments to note.  First, RBA Governor
Stevens, who is set to retire, did not shed light on the immediate outlook for
policy.  However, he said some things that will likely resonate with
others.  He noted that monetary policy could
not
“simply dial-up”  the desired growth level, and
undershooting the inflation target while there is reasonable growth may be the
“least bad option.”  Stevens, like Carney, appear more skeptical
about negative rates that the ECB and BOJ.  

Second, stronger than expected
Norwegian inflation has sent the krone sharply higher
.  It is the
strongest of the majors, gaining 1.25% against the dollar and 0.75% against the
euro.  July was the second consecutive month that headline CPI rose 0.6%.  The median forecast was for a 0.1%
decline.  The year-over-year rate rose to
4.4% from 3.7%.   The underlying rate
rose 0.7% (median was flat) and 3.7% year-over-year.  This essentially
takes the central bank out of the picture in
terms of
easing policy. 

Third, France reported dismal June industrial output figures.  The headline fell 0.8% after a 0.5% decline
in May.  It is the third decline in four
months.  The 1.3% year-over-year decline
is the largest contraction since November
2014.  It was
driven
by a 1.2% drop in manufacturing output, which is the largest fall
since July 2015.    The data warn of the risk that the initial estimate of no growth in
Q2 is revised to show a small contraction.    

Disclaimer

 

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