The BOJ’s two-day meeting concludes tomorrow. For all practical purposes, there is no chance of a change in policy. At last week’s G20 meeting Kuroda made it clear that the aggressive stance is needed for some time. He was quoted in the papers saying, “There is still a long way to achieve the 2% inflation …
Japan’s election is three weeks away. Since last June’s UK referendum, through the US election, and more recently, the German election, there have been plenty of political surprises. Like Merkel, Abe may find that winning is not enough. Merkel was denied a majority and may have to form a coalition that no doubt will be …
Nothing Like A Good US Drama – Marc to Market Edit The no-drama Obama has given way to “The Donald” who appears to be providing more melodrama than an Emmy-winning soap opera. To be sure it is not just him. Hope triumphed over reason among those who thought that the US economy would be ramped …
The Japanese government is delivering the other half of its fiscal policy today. Earlier, Abe decided to postpone the sales tax hike for the second time. Today, the cabinet approved a JPY28 trillion (5.6%) of GDP package. The market is looking past the headlines and is not impressed with the details. The JPY4.6 trillion of …
August has begun off with clear price action. The US dollar is stronger against nearly all the major currencies. Bond yields are higher. Equities and commodities are most lower. However outside of the purchasing managers July manufacturing prints, these does not appear to be an overarching story today. Investors are still trying to make sense …
No Big Thoughts, but Several Smaller Observations Read More »
Contrary to conventional wisdom, we think monetary policy remains an important variable for asset prices. Interest rates and foreign exchange are two dimensions of the price of money. There is a relationship, even if it is not linear or temporally consistent. Moreover, as a great discounting mechanism, the markets often price in the likelihood an …
BOJ and FOMC Meetings Featured in the Last Week of July Read More »