Brexit

Pang of Uncertainty Spurs Profit-Taking

Overview:  The optimism among investors appears to have evaporated in the face of new US-Chinese tensions, possible delays in the next US fiscal stimulus, and new record virus infections in Australia and Hong Kong.   US stocks had pared early gains yesterday, and the high-flying NASDAQ finished lower after setting new record highs.  Hong Kong (-2.25%) and …

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New Record Number of Covid Cases Doesn’t Curtail Appetite for Risk

Overview: A new daily high number of contagions globally has been reported, but the risk-appetites have been stoked.  Chinese stocks have been on a tear.  The Shanghai Composite rallied 5.7% today to bring the five-day advance to 13.6%.  Most other regional markets, including Hong Kong, rallied as well (3.8%).  Australia was the main exception, and it …

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Big Week Ahead

Next week is important. Two G7 central banks meet and at least half a dozen emerging market central banks. There is a European Summit and perhaps a political effort to reinvigorate the UK-EU trade talks, which seem to be crashing on the shoals of stubbornness. The ECB offers its most generous long-term targeted loan that is …

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Four No’s

Sometimes it is easier to have a sense of what will not happen, rather than a view of what will happen.  No Negative Rates in the US:  Nearly every Federal Reserve official has argued against the deployment of negative interest rates in the US.  It is also not completely clear that the same Congressional authorization …

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What Now?

We have learned that China, the world’s second-largest economy contracted by nearly 10% in Q1.  The US has lost in less than two months all the jobs gained in the record expansion.  The central bank of Canada, the 10th largest economy, warned that its output could fall by 30% in the first half.  Europe’s automakers’ association …

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