The step away from the edge of the abyss may have stirred the animal spirits, but it remains precarious at best. The formal withdrawal of the extradition bill in Hong Kong is too late and too little at this juncture. The ambitions of the protests have evolved well beyond that. Italy has a new …
Gaming the ECB and Putting the Cart Before Horse in the Brexit Drama Read More »
Overview: Global equities are advancing at least in part on ideas that trade tensions are easing. China announced it would not take immediate action on the five percentage point increase in levies that the US announced strictly in response to China’s retaliatory tariffs. A lull between blows is not the same thing as de-escalation or …
US Dollar Finishing August on Firm Note as Euro nears Two-Year Lows Read More »
Overview: The sell-off in equities seemed to peak yesterday, and US indices were narrowly mixed. Traders found comfort in that performance, even though the S&P 500 finished a little below 2800, and took the markets in the Asia-Pacific region higher, except in China, where the Shanghai Composite fell 1.5%. Chinese shares saw the most foreign sales …
Overview: The increased likelihood that Brexit is delayed and the possibility of a second referendum is helping lift sterling. As has been the case for most of the time since the June 2016 referendum, the prospects of a softer and/or later Brexit is understood as sterling positive. The other key focus is US-Chinese trade. The delay …
Brexit Dilution Lifts Sterling, while Yesterday’s Equity Rally Fades, Powell Awaited Read More »
While we expect that the broad economic and monetary divergence will allow the dollar’s uptrend to resume, more immediately we have been expecting the recent ranges to remain intact. The ranges may have frayed, but the pre-weekend price action may reinforce them. With a slow start to the week ahead (US holiday and light economic …
The US dollar rose against all the major currencies last week. It also appreciated against most of the emerging market currencies, save two from Latam (Mexico and Peru) and two from Asia (Philippines and Malaysia). The US January jobs report on February 1, coupled with disappointing European data and a less hawkish Reserve Bank of …
Overview: The US dollar is little firmer against most of the major currencies. Despite some disappointing data (retail sales, trade, PMI), the Australian dollar has recovered from initial losses below $0.7200 on the back of the central bank’s reluctance to adopt an easing bias. A small upward revision in the eurozone’s flash service and composite PMIs …