Overview: The eventful week has begun off slowly. After Wall Street’s best week in four months underpinned Asian’ equities, where all the markets but Thailand, advanced, led by the nearly 2.5% rally in Shanghai. Note that New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 rose to new record highs. European bourses are firmer, and the Dow Jones Stoxx has …
Equities Advance, Dollar Slips, Key Events Awaited Read More »
The important events take place in the second half of the week ahead: the ECB meeting and the US employment report. A dovish hold by the ECB is the most likely outcome. US jobs growth is bound to slow from the heady 304k gain in January, but there won’t be anything in it that lends …
Dovish Hold by the ECB and Uptick in US Wages will Underscore Divergence Read More »
Overview: The Fed’s dovish tone and earnings news are the main drivers of the capital markets today, helping lift stocks, bonds, and currencies. Large equity markets in Asia, including Japan, Hong Kong, China’s CSI 300, India, and Indonesia, all rose more than 1%, putting the MSCI Asia Pacific Index in a good position to extend …
Did Powell Toss in the Towel or was it a Tactical Retreat? Read More »
Overview: The US dollar is paring yesterday’s gains against most of the major and emerging market currencies. Sterling pushed above $1.31, an 11-week high on news that the DUP would support Prime Minister’s Plan B that calls for limits on the backstop with Ireland, something that the EC and Ireland have indicated are not on …
Euro Pares Yesterday’s Losses and Sterling Pulls Back after topping $1.31 Read More »
In recent weeks, the macro story focused on the shifting outlook for Fed policy and the Sino-American trade relationship. There is unlikely to be further progress on either issue in the week ahead. The Fed won’t raise interest rates until toward the middle of the year at the earliest. The government shutdown will limit new …
The US dollar rose against all the major and most of the emerging market currencies last week. The Dollar Index made a new marginal high for the year. Although US jobs growth disappointed in November and the flash Markit PMI and manufacturing output was weaker than expected, poor data abroad helped underpin the dollar by default. …
Overview: Investors angst over trade tensions and Brexit continue remains elevated, and poor Chinese and Japanese economic news played on global growth fears. Equities continue to slog lower. Bond yields are little changed, and the dollar is lower against most of the major currencies. Among emerging market currencies, those in eastern and central Europe are …
Overview: Equity markets are unable to build on yesterday’s advance, but bonds and oil are extending gains. The dollar remains on the defensive and is off again all the major currencies. The lack of a joint statement over the weekend by the US and China and seemingly different interpretations of what was agreed leaves investors …
Stock Rally Arrested, but Bond and Oil Advance Continues, leaving Dollar in a Lurch Read More »
Overview: The dollar has fallen against nearly every currency. It had been moving lower at the start of the week, but what seems like a correction broadened and deepened following the US midterm election. The outcome was largely in line with expectations for the Republicans to hold the Senate and the Democrats to take a …
Overview: Weaker data from China coupled with pressure on the European periphery is weighing on sentiment after yesterday’s retreat in US stocks saw the S&P 500 again retreat below the 200-day moving average. Chinese shares staged a power reversal after making new four-year lows with the help of supportive comments by officials and pledges to ease …
Slower Chinese Growth and Italy and Spanish Woes Weigh on Sentiment Ahead of the Weekend Read More »