With the media playing up the US dollar’s negatives, one would think speculators are short the greenback like there is no tomorrow. Yet a review of the Commitment of Traders report that covers the week through last Tuesday, August 4, shows that this is not really the case. Below the speculative positioning of four currency …
Speculative Positioning in Selected Currency Futures Read More »
Overview: The global capital markets are subdued. There have been few developments to induce activity. Even President Trump’s claims that the talks with China are in the “final throes” failed to excite. Equities are extending their advance. Bonds are little changed, and the dollar is mostly firmer. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index and Europe’s Dow Jones …
Overview: Oil prices surged in the initial reaction to the unprecedented drone attack on Saudi Arabia facilities. Saudi Arabia may be able to restore around half of the lost production in a few days. Saudi Arabia and other countries, including the US, prepared to tap strategic reserves, oil prices have seen the initial gains halved. Brent …
The most striking thing about last week’s price action was the surge in US yields. The 10-year yield jumped about 34 basis points, the most in three years and returned to levels not seen since August 2 (1.90%). A deluge of investment-grade corporate bonds and US Treasuries ($78 bln auctioned to lukewarm reception), coupled with …
Overview: The gains in US equities and the apparent US budget agreement has underpinned equities today and the US dollar. Asia Pacific equities recouped yesterday’s losses, and Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx is posting gains for the third consecutive session, helped by some earning beats, to probe two-week highs. US shares are firmer. Benchmark 10-year yields …
Overview: Fed’s Powell confirmed a Fed rate cut at the end of this month by warning that uncertainties since the June FOMC had “dimmed the outlook” and that muted price pressures may be more persistent. It ignited an equity and bond market rally (bullish steepening) while the dollar was sold. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index …
Powell Spurs Equity and Bond Market Rally, While the Greenback Falls Out of Favor Read More »
Overview: Global equity benchmarks are headed for their third consecutive loss today as caution prevails at the start of Q3 after a strong first half. Ten-year benchmark yields are edging higher after a soft start in Asia. Italian bonds continue to outperform. Greek bonds have been set back as the new government reiterated its commitment …
No Turn Around Tuesday, as Equities Extend Losses and the Greenback Remains Firm Read More »
Overview: A global sigh of relief that the US will not tariff all its imports from Mexico. Equities are all higher, and the weekend demonstrations in Hong Kong over a bill allowing extraditions to the mainland for the first time did not deter investors from bidding up the Hang Seng over 2.3%, the most this …
Collective Sigh of Relief Lifts Equities, Yields, and the Dollar Read More »
The US dollar closed today above CAD1.3500 for the first time since January 2. Despite the setback, the Canadian dollar is the strongest of the major currencies year-to-date with a little less than a one percent gain. The yen, in second, has is up about 0.2% (~JPY109.50). Among emerging market currencies, the Mexican peso’s 2.6% …
Poor economic data and soft inflation saw several central banks, including the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, take a dovish turn in March. Contrary to expectations that interest rates would rise as the G3 central banks were no longer adding to their balance sheets on a combined basis. The sharp drop in interest rates …