With the media playing up the US dollar’s negatives, one would think speculators are short the greenback like there is no tomorrow. Yet a review of the Commitment of Traders report that covers the week through last Tuesday, August 4, shows that this is not really the case. Below the speculative positioning of four currency …
Speculative Positioning in Selected Currency Futures Read More »
In the old world that ended sometime last month, the peso was a king. It was among the strongest currencies in the world and appreciated against the US dollar for the past three years. It appreciated nearly 10% against the greenback, which itself was rising against most currencies. Mexico is poorly placed to deal with the …
The US new tariff threat and Trump’s comments at the NATO summit are among the only things people want to talk about today. Trump’s support in the Gallup tracking poll is steady at just above 40%. But even many American who are not supporters like that the Trump is standing up to what they characterize …
When one trades futures, one declares whether one has an underlying business need, in which case one is considered a commercial. If no underlying business need exists, one is classified as a non-commercial, which in the vernacular of the market is a speculator. This first Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, shows the net speculative euro …
Great Graphic: Euro Bulls Stir but Hardly Shaken Read More »
Sentiment has swung back in favor of the dollar. The price action has forced many non-believers to take seriously the possibility that interest rates do ultimately matter and the perceived desire of the Trump Administration does not stand in the way of a stronger dollar. Speculative market positioning is slower to change, and that is …
This Great Graphic from Bloomberg shows the net large speculative positioning in the 10-year note futures over the past five years. They began last year with a huge next short position of more than 400k contracts. By May-June, the speculators had reversed themselves and were net long over 350k contracts. In the middle of December 2017, …
Great Graphic: Has Position Adjustment Begun in Treasury Futures? Read More »
The US reports January CPI figures tomorrow. The market seems especially sensitive to it. The main narrative is that it is an inflation scare spurred by the jump in January average hourly earnings that pushed yields higher and unhinged the stock market. This Great Graphic comes from Bloomberg and is derived from data issued by …
Great Graphic: Bears Very Short US 10-Year Ahead of CPI Read More »
Speculators did not make any significant adjustment to gross positions, which we define as 10k or more contracts in the currency futures, during the CFTC reporting week ending August 29. However, the Australian dollar bulls came close by adding 9.4k contracts to the gross long position. It stood at 101k contracts, which is the highest …
Speculators Make Minor Position Adjustments, but Like that Aussie Read More »
Speculators continued to amass a significant short sterling position in the futures market. In the CFTC reporting week ending August 22, speculators added 11.7k contracts to the gross short position, lifting it to 107.4k contracts. It is the fourth week in the past five the speculators grew the gross short sterling position, and they have …
Speculators made several significant position adjustment in the CFTC reporting week ending August 15, that included an escalation of aggressive rhetoric by the US and North Korea. The reporting period also covered a domestic terrorist incident in the US, and the White House response led to the defection of leaders of America’s largest businesses from …