Given that some of the retail sales that were expected in June were actually booked in May is unlikely to lead to a large revision of expectations for Q2 US GDP, the first estimate of which is due in 11 days. Before the data, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow projects the world’s biggest economy expanded at …
The steady increase in the US two-year yield while the market unwinds rate hike expectations in Australia has pushed the US rate above Australia for the first time since late 2000. In the past month, the US two-year yield has risen by 15 bp, while Australia’s has fallen by 13 bp. But the narrowing of …
Great Graphic: US 2-year Yield Rises Above Australia for First Time since 2000 Read More »
The strength of the Japanese yen puzzles many observers. North Korea’s missile test flew over Japan for the first time in a year. Why would investors buy the yen on such news? There are two types of buying that may be confused. There is the normal buying, which is to increase the exposure to a …
This Great Graphic was created on Bloomberg. It shows two times series. The yellow line and the left-hand scale show the euro’s exchange rate against the dollar for the past year. The white line depicts the spread between the US two-year and 10-year yield. I show the curve this way to be more intuitive with …
The fluctuation of oil prices is often cited as an important factor driving equities. Our work shows that this is not always the case and that the correlation between the price of oil and the S&P 500 continues to ease. We looked the statistical relationship two different ways. We ran the correlation simply on the …
Are Interest Rates No Longer Driving the Dollar? – Marc to Market Edit The US 10-year yield is at its highs for the year, and yet the US dollar has been struggling to gain traction. Some suggest that this means that the dollar rally is over. Charts like this one are circulating among market participants. …
Are Interest Rates No Longer Driving the Dollar? Read More »