Next week is important. Two G7 central banks meet and at least half a dozen emerging market central banks. There is a European Summit and perhaps a political effort to reinvigorate the UK-EU trade talks, which seem to be crashing on the shoals of stubbornness. The ECB offers its most generous long-term targeted loan that is …
We identified three forces that have undermined emerging markets as an asset class: The US policy mix, which results in upward pressure on the dollar and interest rates, competes with other capital importers. This coupled with the second force, the rise in oil prices (which to some extent is also the result of US policies, …
In my first television appearance since joining Bannockburn Global Forex, I joined Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua on the Bloomberg set. In this nearly 2.5 min clip, we talk about the Indonesia rupiah and the dollar’s move above the IDR15000 level for the first time since the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis. I suggest there …
Cool Video: Bloomberg Clip from Discussion on Emerging Markets Read More »
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced that he invited his China counterparts for another round of high-level trade negotiations. Czech central bank has signaled another imminent rate hike. The European Parliament voted to censure Hungary for eroding democratic values. The US State Department announced that it is working on the …
I had the privilege of being on the Bloomberg set with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua earlier today. Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of ECRI also joined us for the discussion. This 6.5 min video clip captures the essence of the discussion. The US dollar was rallying against all the major and most EM currencies. The second …
Cool Video: Emerging Markets Continue to Sell-Off Read More »
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) EM FX ended last week on a firm note, but weakness resumed Monday. Higher than expected Turkish inflation hurt the lira, which in turn dragged down BRL, ARS, ZAR, and RUB. We expect EM to remain under pressure this week when the US returns from holiday Tuesday. Korea reports …
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) EM FX enjoyed a respite from the ongoing selling pressures, with most currencies up on the week vs. the dollar. Best performers were CLP, MXN, and ZAR while the worst were TRY, CNY, and COP. BOJ, Fed, and BOE meetings this week may pose some risks to EM FX. …
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) China officials unveiled a set of policies designed to support the weakening economy. South African Reserve Bank is leaning more hawkish. Central Bank of Turkey delivered a dovish surprise. US-Turkey relations have worsened Moody’s downgraded Chile by a notch to A1 with a stable outlook. US-Mexico trade negotiations may be …
A survey of central banks and sovereign wealth funds by Invesco sheds light on their investment plans. The traditional separation of markets and the state may be helpful for ideological arguments, but the real situation is more complicated. Central banks and their investment vehicles (sovereign wealth funds) are market participants. In some activities, such as …
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) INTRODUCTION Argentina has been able to inject some stability into its markets with several aggressive moves. Yet the situation remains precarious. We believe a quick IMF deal followed by adherence to program targets are necessary but not sufficient conditions to make this stability more durable. Argentina is likely to …