With the media playing up the US dollar’s negatives, one would think speculators are short the greenback like there is no tomorrow. Yet a review of the Commitment of Traders report that covers the week through last Tuesday, August 4, shows that this is not really the case. Below the speculative positioning of four currency …
Speculative Positioning in Selected Currency Futures Read More »
A few hours after the ECB announced a new package of monetary accommodation, I joined a discussion on CNBC Asia with Nancy Hungerford and Sir Jegarajah. Here is a clip of part of our discussion. I make two points. The first is about the euro’s price action. What impressed me about it was that the …
The highly touted trade truce between the US and Europe was political theater at its best. Europe will continue what it had been doing. With US soy being priced out of the Chinese market, the PRC import more soy from Brazil. European soy buyers may be displaced and may turn to the US. US soy …
Developments in Italy and the growing estrangement between the US and Europe, not just over trade, but Russia and Iran as well, are overshadowing the conclusion of the third assistance program for Greece. The end like the beginning is a bit rolling, in the sense that the formal program ends this month, but the final …
Italian capital markets are having a spasm that by some measures is more acute than was experienced during the 2011-2012 sovereign crisis period. We suspect the reprieve being experienced today–after a move historic proportions yesterday–will be short-lived. Market participants see the greatest existential risk to the eurozone since before the French elections last year. And …
Investors are having a fit. For the first two months after the early March Italian elections, investors could hardly care less. Italy’s premium over Germany to borrow money for a decade fell to a two-year low in late April near 132 bp. In the last two sessions, it has jumped nearly 40 bp to 1.87%. …
The European Court of Justice upheld the principle of making creditors bear the burden for investment in banks that sour before government funds can be used. Italian banks are particularly sensitive to the ruling, which cannot be appealed because the European Banking Authority and European Central Bank stress tests on July 29 are expected to …
European Court of Justice Ruling Weighs on Italian Banks Read More »