Overview: Given the huge run-up in risk assets this quarter, and the technical indicators warning of corrective forces, concerns over the new infections is pushing on an open door. The S&P 500 gapped lower yesterday and fell 2.6%, led by energy and airlines. The NASDAQ snapped an eight-day rally. Follow-through selling in the Asia Pacific region …
Contagion Growth and Calendar-Effect Saps Investor Enthusiasm Read More »
Overview: The swing in the pendulum of market sentiment toward fear from greed began last week and has carried over into today’s activity. Global equities are getting mauled. In the Asia Pacific region, no market was spared as the Nikkei’s 3.5% drop, and South Korea’s 4.7% fall led the way. In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx …
Low unemployment rates in the US, UK, and Japan have not fueled much wage pressure, and this is vexing policymakers. They are unable to normalize monetary policy because inflation remains subdued, and it is difficult to envision a sustained and durable increase in price pressures without higher wages. There may not have been any other …
Labor, Inflation, Aggregate Demand, and French Reforms Read More »
Markozy, Merde, and now Meron – Marc to Market Edit German Chancellor Merkel is one of the outstanding leaders of our era. She leads the world’s fourth largest economy, which is still the locomotive for Europe. Recent state elections and polls leave little doubt that barring some kind of shock, she will be re-elected as …
The US dollar is narrowing mixed as the employment data, and Fed speeches are awaited. Six Fed officials speak today, including Yellen and Fischer. Regional Presidents Williams, Rosengren Evans and Bullard also speak. It will be the first flurry of speeches since the FOMC meeting. The market’s take away from the FOMC statement that was …
The results of the first round of the French election spurred a dramatic response in the capital markets. Our thesis that there is no populist-nationalist wave sweeping the world is supported by the previous results in Austria, the Netherlands, and now France. The AfD in Germany is wilting in the polls, and there too the …
Politics and Economics in the Week Ahead – Marc to Market Edit The results of the French presidential election will be known prior to the open of the Asian session. No doubt the outcome will spur an initial knee-jerk reaction, but barring an outright victory for Le Pen, which seems highly unlikely, or the left candidate …
Neither the terrorist attack in Paris nor the strong eurozone flash PMI has managed to shake investors. Judging from the social media, many suspect that the terrorist attack plays into Le Pen’s hands, but investors do not seem particularly concerned. The French interest rate premium over Germany has narrowed, and gold is flat. UK …
Markets Enter Consolidative Mode Ahead of Weekend Read More »
The US dollar has a slight downside bias today through the European morning. The market does not seem particularly focused on high frequency data, though sterling traded higher after an unchanged year-over-year reading of 2.3%, and the euro traded higher after a stronger Germany ZEW survey. Geopolitical concerns continued to be elevated. The South Korean …
The US dollar is narrowly mixed after a brief attempt in Asia to extend its pre-weekend gains fizzled, and a consolidative tone has emerged. The news stream is light and largely limited to the current Japanese account and the Sentix survey from Europe. Geopolitical anxiety is still running high, and the South Korean won and …