Developments in Italy and the growing estrangement between the US and Europe, not just over trade, but Russia and Iran as well, are overshadowing the conclusion of the third assistance program for Greece. The end like the beginning is a bit rolling, in the sense that the formal program ends this month, but the final …
The US dollar has been marked lower since the middle of last month. It flies in the face strong growth, rising inflation expectations, and greater conviction that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates this year. Moreover, an oft-cited knock on the dollar, the widening current account, may be offset this year by the impact …
ECB and BOJ Meetings Could be Key to Dollar Direction Read More »
The IMF has been reluctant to participate in the aid package to Greece that runs out the middle of next year. It does not believe that Greek debt is sustainable. Nevertheless, it did recently agree to provide a precautionary line of credit at the end of the program. The IMF decision required the approval of …
The eurozone appears to be in rare form. The political threat that seemed so palpable at the start of the year has faded. Not only have the populist-nationalists been turned back at every opportunity, but polls suggest the new French President can secure a parliamentary majority in upcoming elections. The regional economy continues to expand …
Greece is stuck. It has fulfilled nearly every demand of the official creditors. Most recently, it agreed to cut some pensions and raise some taxes after the current aid package expires around the middle of next year. This agreement will free up the next tranche of payment so that Greece can make a large debt …
With the backdrop of US interest rates unable to get much traction, despite the strong probability of another Fed rate hike in a couple of weeks, the third since last November election, the US dollar mixed today. The chief story today, though, is not the greenback but the euro. The euro is trading heavily for …
Mixed Dollar as Market Awaits Preliminary EMU CPI and US Jobs Read More »
A New Phase Begins – Marc to Market Edit There were no celebrations; no horn or trumpets, nary a sound, but an important shift took place last week. The shift was signaled by two events. The first was the US strike on Syria, and the second was investors’ willingness to look past Q1 economic data. …
Freud warned that unresolved psychological conflicts might be repressed but they keep returning. So too with Greece’s debt problems. A new crisis is at hand. Investor nervousness is evident in the surge in the two-year yield this week, up nearly 100 bp. The fact that the 10-year yield is up a more modest 10 bp, and …
The problem is uncomfortably familiar. Greece has a chunky payment due to its official creditors. Reports suggest that Greece has not completed much more than a third of the measures that had been agreed upon free up the next aid tranche from the 86 bln euro package. Time is working against Greece. The elections in …
Macro Forces Underpin Dollar, Equities and Yields – Marc to Market Edit The major US equity indices reached record highs before the weekend even if the Dow 20000 level was just out of reach. Following news of a stronger than expected rise in hourly earnings, US yields rose, and after an initial stumble, the dollar recovered …
Macro Forces Underpin Dollar, Equities and Yields Read More »