After a lull in important economic data and major central bank meetings, the calendar picks up next week. The highlights include the US and EMU’s first estimate of Q2 GDP, the FOMC meeting, and China’s July PMI. Investors may be informed by these developments, but they are unlikely to change the investment climate, which is …
The pandemic has served to synchronize business cycles. In the first instance, it was a body blow to economies. After the first shock, it was a question of containing the outbreaks, ensuring the financial markets and bank functions have normalized to facility the economic recovery. It appears March and April were the worst and that …
This Great Graphic was tweeted by Martin Beck, and it comes from Oxford Economics, using Haver Analytics database. It shows the relative economic growth since 2008 for the US, UK, Japan, and EMU. It will not surprise many to learn that US contraction was not as deep as in the areas. It also would not …
Great Graphic: Selected GDP Performance since 2008 and Policy Read More »
US GDP Misses, but Final Domestic Sales Accelerate – Marc to Market Edit The first estimate of Q4 16 US GDP undershot expectations at 1.9%. Most had looked for annualized pace of a little more than 2% after the 3.5% pace in Q3. The Q3 pace was always suspect given the unsustainable surge in agriculture (soy) …
US GDP Misses, but Final Domestic Sales Accelerate Read More »
The US economy now is estimated to have expanded by 3.2% in Q3, up from the initial estimate of 2.9%, and is the fasted in since Q3 2014. The average quarterly growth rate this year is 1.8% compared with 1.9% last year. The Federal Reserve estimates trend growth or the long-term sustainable pace is 1.8%. …
Many observers are puzzled. The last FOMC meeting showed three regional presidents felt sufficiently convinced of the need to hike rates immediately that they chose to dissent. On the other hand, the dot plots showed three officials did not think a hike this year is warranted. There is some speculation that one or two of …
Yellen and Fischer Still Singing from the Same Song Book Read More »
There are two main interpretative frameworks that seek to explain the slow growth and low interest rates. The first is associated with Rogoff and Rinehart. They argue that the recent economic performance is largely what should be expected following a debt crisis. As deleveraging works its way through the system, it may take several years, …