The spring meetings of the World Bank and IMF will be held virtually this week amid a profound economic crisis spurred by a novel coronavirus. Unlike previous such viruses, this went global in such a destructive way that many countries have responded the same way. Encouraging social distancing, closing non-essential businesses, and enforcing lockdowns. The …
Overview: In the war against the novel coronavirus, humans are striking back, and appear to be gradually getting the upper end, especially in place in Europe, and possibly the US, which has been particularly hard hit. Risk appetites are surging. Nearly all the equity markets are higher today, with India playing catch-up after yesterday’s holiday …
Developments in Italy and the growing estrangement between the US and Europe, not just over trade, but Russia and Iran as well, are overshadowing the conclusion of the third assistance program for Greece. The end like the beginning is a bit rolling, in the sense that the formal program ends this month, but the final …
The IMF has been reluctant to participate in the aid package to Greece that runs out the middle of next year. It does not believe that Greek debt is sustainable. Nevertheless, it did recently agree to provide a precautionary line of credit at the end of the program. The IMF decision required the approval of …
Greece is stuck. It has fulfilled nearly every demand of the official creditors. Most recently, it agreed to cut some pensions and raise some taxes after the current aid package expires around the middle of next year. This agreement will free up the next tranche of payment so that Greece can make a large debt …
A New Phase Begins – Marc to Market Edit There were no celebrations; no horn or trumpets, nary a sound, but an important shift took place last week. The shift was signaled by two events. The first was the US strike on Syria, and the second was investors’ willingness to look past Q1 economic data. …
Freud warned that unresolved psychological conflicts might be repressed but they keep returning. So too with Greece’s debt problems. A new crisis is at hand. Investor nervousness is evident in the surge in the two-year yield this week, up nearly 100 bp. The fact that the 10-year yield is up a more modest 10 bp, and …
The ECB does not include Greek bonds in its sovereign bond purchase operation. However, the progress is being made, and it is possible that starting early next year, the ECB will buy Greek bonds. Greece Deputy Finance Minister Chouliarakis told the EU Parliament that a staff-level agreement is possible before the end of the year. …
Greek Bonds may Soon be Included in ECB Purchases Read More »