With the dollar continuing to trend lower, it was time to check again with Ben Lichtenstein at TD Ameritrade. It was a privilege to join him today to discuss the drivers. I sketched out my views that the greenback’s two legs, growth and interest rate differentials have been knocked from under it. There is a …
The new week starts slowly with the US and UK markets closed on Monday, May 25. Even then, the economic calendar is light. With shutdowns easing in May, April data is too dated to be of much interest to investors. The preliminary May PMIs last week offered a hint that the low point for many high-income …
Overview: There is one overriding driver today, and that is the incorporation of CAT scan diagnoses of the virus in Hubei, ground-zero. This follows the arrival of WHO officials into China a couple days ago. Not only have the cases jumped, but so did the number of deaths. It plays on fears that China’s figures are …
Surprise? China Undercounts Afflictions and Fatalities, Curbs Risk Taking Read More »
Full liquidity returns to the markets gradually in the coming days, and the week ahead culminates with the US December employment report. The highlights include the service and composite PMI readings, and December eurozone and China’s CPI. The UK reports December PMIs, November GDP, and industrial output figures. While the economic reports may pose some …
High-Frequency Data may Underscore Four Thematic Points Read More »
By all reckoning, the US dollar had a good week. It rose against nearly all the major currencies, and against many broke out of recent ranges. Ironically, the dollar gains more mostly scored before the surprisingly strong Q1 GDP print of 3.2%. In fact, all the major currencies but the Norwegian krone recouped some of …
The euro is beginning this week with a four-week slide in tow. It has depreciated in eight of the past ten weeks. It fell in only three months in 2017 and has already fallen two this year. Nearly halfway through May, the euro is off almost a cent. Widening interest rate differentials have some explanatory …
The increase in equity market volatility preceded the escalation of trade tensions, but now the latter appears to be stymying attempts to stabilize the former. The equity market was its own dynamics, and last year’s low volatility was an anomaly and payback, as in reversion to mean, is painful. Following the list of the specific …
The dollar was bid before the US economic data. The market responded quickly upon seeing the disappointing 0.1% rise in core CPI. Given the base effect, the 0.1% increase kept the year-over-year rate at 1.7% for the fourth consecutive month. The dollar reversed lower. Retail sales were largely in line with expectations. The 1.6% headline …
Dollar Dropped like Hot Potato After Core CPI Disappointed Read More »
In early 2005, Greenspan said that the fact that long-term rates were lower despite the Fed’s campaign to raise short-term rates was a “conundrum.” Many rushed to offer the Fed Chair an explanation of the conundrum, which given past cycles may not have been such an enigma in the first place. Be it as it …
Low unemployment rates in the US, UK, and Japan have not fueled much wage pressure, and this is vexing policymakers. They are unable to normalize monetary policy because inflation remains subdued, and it is difficult to envision a sustained and durable increase in price pressures without higher wages. There may not have been any other …
Labor, Inflation, Aggregate Demand, and French Reforms Read More »