Trade, central bank policy, and Brexit dominated the investment climate in September. The US-Chinese trade conflict stopped escalating. Although face-to-face talks are planned in October and the list of exemptions from the punitive tariffs has increased (US soy and pork, for example, are now exempt as are 10 components of Apple’s Mac Book Pro from …
We have argued that the road to an orderly Brexit remains arduous and that sterling had entered an important technical area ($1.2500-$1.2530). At the same time, see the dollar as having approached the upper end of its broad trading range against the yen. One of the important drivers lifting the dollar was the dramatic rise …
Great Graphic: Views Distill to Short Sterling Long Yen Opportunity Read More »
Overview: The confrontation in Hong Kong and the fallout from the Argentine primary over the weekend join concerns the conflict between the two largest economies and slower growth to force the animal spirits into hibernation. Global equities remain under pressure. Japan’s Topix joined several other markets in the region to have given up its year-to-date gain. …
My first book, Making Sense of the Dollar, was published by Bloomberg Press ten years ago this week. It was named a Bronze medal winner by Independent Publishers. It sought to counter the declinists of the period who, understandably, if even mistakenly, thought the dollar was on an exorable path that had been carved by …
A few hours after President Trump tweeted the end of another tariff truce with China, I had the privilege of talking with CNBC’s Asia anchors Mary Hungerford and Sri Jegarajah on the outlook for the yuan and yen. The 2.45-minute video clip can be found here. The new tariffs on China will likely further reduce …
Cool Video: CNBC Asia and Thoughts on CNY/CNH and JPY Read More »
There is little doubt that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on July 31. We never thought the chances of a 50 bp move were anything but negligible, though even at this late stage, the market appears to be pricing in about a one-in-five chance. Although a …
The Japanese yen is the best performing currency so far here in May. It has appreciated by roughly 1.25% against the dollar. The same forces that lift it are also boosting the Swiss franc (mtd 1%). The investment climate has turned in a decidedly less supportive direction following the end of the US-China tariff truce, …
Poor economic data and soft inflation saw several central banks, including the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, take a dovish turn in March. Contrary to expectations that interest rates would rise as the G3 central banks were no longer adding to their balance sheets on a combined basis. The sharp drop in interest rates …
Overview: The global growth scare may be subsiding. It had been fanned by the ECB and Fed statements and projections. Poor US jobs growth reported in early March and the poor flash EMU PMI late in the month contributed. The slowdown in China and the flurry of measures to combat it also had a role. The …
Overview: The lurch lower in global interest rates continue. The US 10-year yield is at new 15-month lows, five basis points through the average effective Fed funds rate. Late yesterday, it appeared that 10-year German Bund yields slipped below similar Japanese government bond yields for the first time since Q4 16, but when the JGB market …