The prospect of a third trade truce between the US and China helped underpin the optimism that extended the rally in equities. Bond yields continued to back-up after dropping precipitously in August, led by a more than 30 bp increase in the US yield benchmark. The Dollar Index fell for the second consecutive week, something …
It is an amazing set of circumstances. The combination of strong growth impulses fueled by supportive monetary policies, and in several large economies (e.g., US and Japan) fiscal policy is also stimulative and demographics are causing a shift that few have yet to recognize. There is a profound shortage of workers that is beginning to …
Little good can be said about the August jobs report. The 156k growth in jobs disappointed and is well below the recent averages. The back two months were revised lower for a total of 41k jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% even though the participation rates were unchanged at 62.9%. As if …
Poor Jobs Data Pressures Dollar, Unsourced ECB Comment Brings it Back Read More »
I had the distinct of honor of being on Bloomberg television today with David Gura and Francine Lacqua. Dino Kos, formerly of the NY Fed and now at CLS, joined this segment as well. The broad topic was the Jackson Hole Symposium, and the challenge is fostering more dynamic growth. While short-term market participants …
Cool Video: Bloomberg Discussion of Opioid Epidemic and US Labor Read More »
The US jobs data is notoriously difficult to accurately forecast consistently. I do not claim to do so now. My intent is more modest. It is simply to point out why I think there is risk that the jobs data is disappointing, especially after the stronger than expected ADP estimate. The same forces that weighed on …
Starbucks insists that we call its medium serving “grande.” Facebook tells us that many who we know just casually are “friends.” People don’t have a couple of part-time jobs, where they don’t qualify for benefits or protections for job-related injury or vacation, they have gigs. Our species has an uncanny ability to turn a …
The pessimists have claimed that the US is generating low paying jobs. Nearly every monthly jobs report is followed by what seems to be a canned retort. The media picks up on the story and continues to regenerate it. Earlier in the recovery the argument made sense. It makes less sense now. US …
Great Graphic: What Kind of Jobs is the US Creating Read More »