Macro

Will PMIs Show Economies Hit Bottom? Are US-China Tensions Rising Again?

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March was when the markets froze up. Many, including myself, thought closing the markets was possible as has been done during other big shocks and without jeopardizing the reputation of exchanges or officials. Central banks and governments around the world began responding in earnest to the impact of economic shutdowns the market disruptions. The MSCI All …

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May Monthly

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Aggressive action by several central banks and governments helped reduce the extreme tail risk that had seemed so dominant in the second half of March.  Strains in the funding markets eased, and equity markets recouped some of the steep losses inflicted during the frenzied panic.   To be sure, most major economies were largely shut down …

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March Monthly

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The new coronavirus that originated in China, apparently first detected in December, emerged on the world’s stage in January and continues to dominate the investment climate. There are two critical questions for investors and businesses whose answers will likely be clearer in the first part of March.  First, will Covid-19 be contained for the most …

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February Monthly

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The global capital markets were roiled in recent weeks by the new virus that jumped species in China.  It is contagious during the incubation periods and appears similar though more aggressive than  SARS in 2003-2004.  And China is larger and significantly more integrated into the global political economy.     The new coronavirus is impactful in …

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The Return of Spheres of Influence

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Traditionally, international relations were driven by what is called spheres of influence.  European and Japanese governments divided Asia and Africa among them. The spheres were often political concessions or the result of direct force,   War was often the price to be paid for increasing one’s sphere.  Though simplistically expressed here to a fault, this the …

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September Monthly

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Three forces are shaping the investment climate.  The US-China trade conflict escalates at the start of September as both will raise tariffs on each other’s goods and are threatening another round in mid-December (US 25% tariffs on $250 of Chinese imports will increase to 30% on October 1).  Some third parties may benefit from the …

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