The new week starts slowly with the US and UK markets closed on Monday, May 25. Even then, the economic calendar is light. With shutdowns easing in May, April data is too dated to be of much interest to investors. The preliminary May PMIs last week offered a hint that the low point for many high-income …
Overview: New two and a half month highs in the S&P 500 yesterday failed to have much sway in the Asia Pacific region and Europe today as US-China tensions escalate and profit-taking set in. Perhaps it is a bit of “buy the rumor sell the fact” type of activity on the back of upticks in the …
Overview: Another late sell-off of US equities, ostensibly on questions over Moderna’s progress on a vaccine, failed to deter equity gains in the Asia Pacific region. China was a notable exception, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fourth consecutive session. European shares are little changed, but reflects a split. On the one hand, …
Fed Funds Futures No Longer Imply Negative Rates Read More »
Overview: Despite somber warnings that the US economic recovery can stretch to the end of next year, investors have begun the new week by taking on new risks. Most equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rose, with Australia leading the large bourses with a 1% gain. India was an outlier, suffering a 2.4% loss, and …
March was when the markets froze up. Many, including myself, thought closing the markets was possible as has been done during other big shocks and without jeopardizing the reputation of exchanges or officials. Central banks and governments around the world began responding in earnest to the impact of economic shutdowns the market disruptions. The MSCI All …
Will PMIs Show Economies Hit Bottom? Are US-China Tensions Rising Again? Read More »
Overview: Risk appetites have been gradually waning this week. US equity losses mounted yesterday after Tuesday’s late sell-off. Asia Pacific equities were off, with many seeing at least 1.5% drops. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off a little more to double this week’s decline and leaves it in a position to be the biggest drop …
Do you ever read the last few pages of a fiction book before getting into it? It seems a bit like watching the economic data now. We know roughly where it is headed, the unknown is precisely how it gets there. A common criticism of economists is that they are too late in calling a recession. One …
Overview: The S&P 500 closed near its session lows for the third day running yesterday but failed to deter the bulls in Asia-Pacific, where most markets rose by more than 1%. Taiwan, Korea, and Australia lagged a bit though closed higher. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is firm, and the modest gains (~0.5%) would be …
G7 officials used to say that foreign exchange markets should be driven by fundamentals. It struck some as vacuous. What else could drive the largest part of the capital markets, a $6.6 trillion a day turnover prior to the crisis but macro? The challenge is really which macro factors should determine exchange rates. There seems to …
Overview: Speculation that the US Senate would pass the large stimulus bill worth around 10% of US GDP is thought to have fueled a bounce in equities in recent days. The bill was approved and will now go to the House, where a vote is expected tomorrow. If the rumor was bought, the fact has been …