Periodization is an under-appreciated part of political and economic narratives. What are the broad patterns that determine before and after? What marks different phases or epochs? In Capital Alone, Branko Milanovic’s new book, he suggests a social-democratic form of capitalism dominated after WWII. At the start of the 21st century, a liberal meritocratic version emerged …
The first week of June features the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, an ECB meeting, and the US employment data. The RBA is expected to deliver its first rate cut in three years. The market appears to have discounted not only a second cut in H2 but has priced nearly half of a third cut …
There seems to be a consensus among investors and asset managers. The expansion of central bank balance sheets through the purchase of sovereign bonds pushed and is keeping bond yields low. Some observers suggest that the central banks’ QE has paved the way for the rise of populism by taking by neutralizing the ability of …
What if Central Banks are not the Main Reason Rates are Low? Read More »
The Trump Administration’s trade policy intentions have been clear, and the resignation of Cohn removes a distraction and a fifth column globalist from its midst. The path for the heterodox trade Troika of Navarro, Ross, and Lighthizer is clear. When White House Communications Direct Hope Hiks left the Administration, some pundit quipped that there was …
I had the privilege of joining the set of anchors (Julie Cchatterley, ScarletFu, and Joe Weisenthal on the set of “What’d You Miss” today. The unrehearsed discussion took an unexpected turn when Joe asked about the low volatility. The anchors were patient and gave me time to provide a sketch of the thesis of my …
Cool Video: A Tentative Answer to the Low Vol Question Read More »
The consensus narrative from the Jackson Hole Symposium was the Yellen and Draghi used their speeches to argue against dismantling financial regulation and the drift toward protectionism. Many cast this as a push against US President Trump, but this may be too narrow understanding. Many investors were looking for policy clues, but these were not …
Two Overlooked Takeaways from Draghi at Jackson Hole Read More »
In a speech to the joint session of Congress that was widely recognized as “presidential,” US President Trump said twice that there are 94 mln Americans out of the labor market. It is not a lie or fake news or even an alternative fact, but it is so misleading that it is incredulous. Here is …
My business trip is ending. I left NYC on February 1 and and returned today. The Dollar Index rose every day that I was gone, and is struggling to extend the streak today. It is, I am sure, a correlation and not a causal relationship. I am able to keep the blog going, though the …
Lies, Damn Lies, and Taxes – Marc to Market Edit President Trump hinted at the end of last week that the Administration’s tax proposals would be aired in the next two or three weeks. This seems to be a signal of its inclusion in his address to both houses of Congress on February 28. This is …
My new book, Political Economy of Tomorrow has just been published, and it is available on Amazon. The book is not a sequel to my first book, Making Sense of the Dollar. There is very little about the foreign exchange market in the new book. However, it is not wholly new cloth either. There is a journalist-cum-presidential adviser at the turn …