Next week is important. Two G7 central banks meet and at least half a dozen emerging market central banks. There is a European Summit and perhaps a political effort to reinvigorate the UK-EU trade talks, which seem to be crashing on the shoals of stubbornness. The ECB offers its most generous long-term targeted loan that is …
The outbreak of Covid-19 continues to be the major disruptive force, impacting households, investors, businesses, and policymakers. The virus hits vulnerable individuals and institutions. Monetary policy, and in some places, including Italy, fiscal policy will be deployed too. The handling of the crisis could shape both Chairman Xi and President Trump’s political futures. The coronavirus …
What You Should Know about the Other Shock: Oil Prices Read More »
The US employment report on the first Friday of December usually marks the unofficial end of the year. The desks are often lighter and dealers are loath to jeopardize the year’s bonuses in thin and often erratic markets. This year is an exception. Next week features the first ECB meeting with Lagarde at the helm …
Three events that will capture the market’s attention next week: The consequences of the Japanese election, the first look at US Q1 GDP, and the ECB meeting. The central banks of Turkey and Russia also meet. Both are expected to cut interest rates, following rate cuts in the middle of last week by South Korea, …
Overview: The Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 this coming weekend and heightened tensions in the Gulf, with the US set to impose new sanctions on Iran’s crippled economy are keeping investors on edge. News the opposition won the re-do of the Istanbul mayoral election has lifted the Turkish lira. Most of the major Asia Pacific …
Russia and Saudi Arabia play each other to open the World Cup on June 14. Soccer may not explain the world as well as Foer traces in his famous 2004 book (How Soccer Explains the World), but it may set the stage for the oil producers’ meeting next week. Neither country’s football team are regarded …
Through Republican and Democrat Administrations, no US president has found that a foreign country’s activities have risen to the level that can be considered manipulation for nearly a quarter of a century. Initially, the law required a judgment of intent. Intervention by itself, or even a pegged currency regime, was not proof of manipulation. Unsatisfied …
FX Manipulation: To Take Trump Seriously Means not Literally Read More »
A New Phase Begins – Marc to Market Edit There were no celebrations; no horn or trumpets, nary a sound, but an important shift took place last week. The shift was signaled by two events. The first was the US strike on Syria, and the second was investors’ willingness to look past Q1 economic data. …
Domestic issues have dominated the news of the first 50 days of the Trump Administration. With the German Chancellor’s trip to Washington tomorrow, Secretary of State Tillerson in Asia, and the G20 meeting, foreign affairs may knock the debate about the US budget and health care off the headlines. Investors and policymakers appear aware that …
If there is One Thing Investors and Foreign Officials should Know about the US… Read More »
Week Ahead: Number One Rule of the Game is Stay in the Game – Marc to Market Edit The week ahead is short on economic data and long on anticipation. It could make for some choppy price action. The dollar’s uptrend of the first part of the month yielded to corrective forces last week, though the …
Week Ahead: Number One Rule of the Game is Stay in the Game Read More »