Overview: The markets are digesting ECB’s actions and an easing in US-Chinese rhetoric. Next week features the FOMC meeting and three other major central banks (Japan, Switzerland, and Norway). The US equity rally that saw the S&P 500 edge closer to the record high set in late July spilled over to lift Asian markets. Chinese …
Bonds and the Dollar Remain Heavy Ahead of the Weekend Read More »
Overview: It promises to be an eventful week with the FOMC and BOE meeting, US jobs report and EMU April CPI and Q1 GDP on tap. However, the week is marked by the May Day holiday in the middle of the week. Japan’s markets are closed all week, while China’s markets are closed from mid-week …
Overview: The equities are finishing softly after the rally stalled in the middle of the week. The large markets in Asia fell, led by China, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for a third session, the longest losing streak in two months. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 ended an eight-day advance with a two-day loss …
The drop in US yields and disappointing economic data weighed on sentiment and the dollar last week. Even weakness in equities, which had seemed to lend the greenback support, failed to do so at the end of last week. With the real Fed funds rate (adjusted for inflation) below zero, employment at 50-year lows, and …
The Week Ahead: Don’t Skip Steps on Escalation Ladders Read More »
As official action seeks to address the flood of refugees into Greece and Italy bite, the pressure has been deflected to Spain. According to the UN High Commission on Refugees, 24k undocumented refugees have entered Spain this year. There were 28.4k all of last year. Refugees going to Italy, by contrast, have fallen to about 18.3k …
Refugees Fleeing to Spain Surpass Italy and Greece Read More »
The global capital markets that were in panic mode on Tuesday stabilized yesterday, and corrective forces have carried into today’s activity. However, the underlying issues in Italy and Spain are hardly clarified in the past 48 hours. Moreover, the US push on trade is intensifying again. The temporary exemptions for the EU, Canada, and Mexico …
The US dollar has been marked lower since the middle of last month. It flies in the face strong growth, rising inflation expectations, and greater conviction that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates this year. Moreover, an oft-cited knock on the dollar, the widening current account, may be offset this year by the impact …
ECB and BOJ Meetings Could be Key to Dollar Direction Read More »
Germany does not have a government, though the election was more than three months ago. Spain, Portugal, and Ireland have minority governments. Austria is the first government since the financial crisis to include the populist right. The EU is trying to press the Visegrad group of central European countries to conform to the values of …
The week ahead will be among the busiest in Q4. In this note, we provide a brief sketch of the different events and data points that will shape the investment climate. Given the importance of initial conditions, we will begin with an overview of the current investment climate. Equity markets continue to rally, helped by strong …
The US dollar is consolidating after retreating since reversing lower following the US jobs data at the end of last week. While the greenback has largely been confined to yesterday’s ranges against the major currencies, the euro has made a marginal new high, briefly trading through the $1.1830 area noted yesterday. Spanish assets are rallying …