On June 26, the 10-year generic German yield closed at 24.5 basis points. It finished last week a little over 57 basis points. The similar Italian yield has risen 45 basis points to 2.05%. The short-end of the yield curve is constrained by the negative 40 basis point deposit rate. The steepening of the yield …
Week Ahead: Bank of Canada, US CPI, and UK Labor Update Featured Read More »
The IMF has been reluctant to participate in the aid package to Greece that runs out the middle of next year. It does not believe that Greek debt is sustainable. Nevertheless, it did recently agree to provide a precautionary line of credit at the end of the program. The IMF decision required the approval of …
US Commerce Secretary Ross promised to conclude the special investigation into US steel imports in the name of US national security by the end of the month. The outcome of the investigation is largely a foregone conclusion. Even before the investigation began, Ross said he would need less than a third of the allowable time. …
US Steel Investigation: The Challenge to World Trade Read More »
It is not that the economic data are not important. They are. Indeed, with the focus shifting toward prices from real sector performance, as the key to the reaction function of central banks, it is notable that the US, Japan, and the eurozone all report their preferred inflation measure in the days ahead. However, the …
Drivers: A Couple Things that Aren’t on Your Economic Calendar Read More »
Steel and the Trump Twist – Marc to Market Edit The US investigation into steel imports is not particularly novel. The US steel industry is highly organized for such purposes. The steel sector has the significant global excess capacity, which makes for intense competition. What is relatively new about the investigation is that it is being …
Americans have a saying about an 800-pound gorilla in a room. It refers to a person or organization so powerful that it can act unilaterally. The British have an expression about an elephant in a room. It refers to a “fact” or problem that is not being addressed. Regardless of the idiom one prefers, both …
Gorilla or Elephant, Chinese Surplus Capacity is the Challenge Read More »