Taxes

Is Globalization more than Tax Arbitrage? Follow the People not the Money

The use of low-tax centers by multinational companies as part of tax minimization strategies distorts measures of capital flows and direct investment, which are integral to globalization.  Last year, for example, Microsoft shifted $52.8 bln of assets from Singapore to Ireland in a few pen and computer strokes.  The Dublin-based entity, the company’s European headquarters, …

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Cut Corporate Taxes to Boost Investment and Wages?

Reports suggest that the US Congress is making progress toward tax reform.  The House of Representatives is still slated to vote on its version tomorrow.  It appears likely to pass.  The Senate version will be marked up in committee this week.  The latest revisions include repealing the individual insurance mandate and ending the middle class …

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US Fiscal Policy

The rancorous debate over health care reform sucked the oxygen away from other pressing issues before Congress.  The savings from the reforms was seen as a critical part of tax reform.  The tax reform strategy is the same as with health care reform.  A small group of Republicans, representing both houses of Congress and the …

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Corporate Cash, Taxes and US Treasury Yields

A majority of Federal Reserve officials expect that conditions will warrant two more hikes this year.  That would put the Fed funds target range at 1.25%-1.50% at year-end.  Yet the two-year note yields less than 1.3% and the 10-year yield has been struggling to sustain gains above 2.30%.   Several central banks, including the People’s Bank …

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US Tax Reform in Jeopardy and the State of the Strong Dollar Policy

The focus in the market is shifting away from the Federal Reserve, for which the consensus recognizes that the FOMC minutes probably make a March hike less likely.   The CME’s calculations put the odds at less than 18%, while the Bloomberg estimate puts the odds near 32%.  Our own calculation is closer to the CME’s.  …

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