With the dollar continuing to trend lower, it was time to check again with Ben Lichtenstein at TD Ameritrade. It was a privilege to join him today to discuss the drivers. I sketched out my views that the greenback’s two legs, growth and interest rate differentials have been knocked from under it. There is a …
Overview: Escalating dramas may be behind the position adjustment today ahead of the US jobs data. The US and China feud expanded beyond Tiktok to WeChat, and efforts to tighten disclosure rules for Chinese companies listed in the US are nearing. The negotiations between the White House and the Democrats broke down, preventing or at …
Position Adjustment Dominates ahead of US/Canada Employment Reports Read More »
There is no reason to expect the investment climate is going to change next week. The key drivers remain the same. The resurgence being seen in the virus is posing a speed bump in the re-opening and recovery process. The work of monetary and fiscal policy is not over. The low real and nominal interest …
Data and the Virus may Determine the Magnitude of the Dollar’s Bounce Read More »
Overview: Market optimism over the possibility of a vaccine in early 2021 overshadowed the continued surge in US cases, where the 50k-a-day threshold of new cases has been breached. Following the NASDAQ close yesterday at record highs, global equities have advanced. Led by Hong Kong returning from yesterday’s holiday, Asia Pacific equities rallied. Most local …
Overview: The combination of rising virus cases and the sell-off in the US before the weekend dragged nearly all the Asia Pacific bourses lower. The Nikkei led the way with more than a 2% drop, but most bourses were off more than 1%. China and Taiwan were also greeted with selling as markets re-opened from …
Overview: New two and a half month highs in the S&P 500 yesterday failed to have much sway in the Asia Pacific region and Europe today as US-China tensions escalate and profit-taking set in. Perhaps it is a bit of “buy the rumor sell the fact” type of activity on the back of upticks in the …
Overview: After shunning risk yesterday, investors re-entered the fray today, and the animal spirits returned. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day slide, and China’s markets were among the few losers in the region today. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 recovered yesterday’s losses in full and is again at record highs. US shares are also …
Overview: There is one overriding driver today, and that is the incorporation of CAT scan diagnoses of the virus in Hubei, ground-zero. This follows the arrival of WHO officials into China a couple days ago. Not only have the cases jumped, but so did the number of deaths. It plays on fears that China’s figures are …
Surprise? China Undercounts Afflictions and Fatalities, Curbs Risk Taking Read More »
Overview: A more cautious tone is evident today in the markets, which seem to have run well ahead of macro developments and evidence that the new coronavirus is not yet contained. After a roughly 3.5% advance in the past three sessions, the MSCI Asia Pacific index pulled back with nearly the markets in the region slipping. …
Dollar Rides High as Eurozone Disappoints, and Caution Sets In Read More »
Overview: The bullish enthusiasm that carried the S&P 500 to new closing highs yesterday is helping Asia Pacific and European shares today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the third session with Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Korea jumping two percent. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 gapped to new record highs before stabilizing in mid-morning …
Stocks Push Higher but more Cautious Tone may be Emerging Read More »