There is no reason to expect the investment climate is going to change next week. The key drivers remain the same. The resurgence being seen in the virus is posing a speed bump in the re-opening and recovery process. The work of monetary and fiscal policy is not over. The low real and nominal interest …
Data and the Virus may Determine the Magnitude of the Dollar’s Bounce Read More »
The recent price action, and in particular, the sideways trend in many segments of the capital markets, reflects the challenge investors are having in separating the wheat from the chaff. The strong co-movement of risk assets has weakened. There is a lack of near-term visibility and contradictory signals, while the trends in place since March have …
The capital markets will turn increasingly quiet in the week ahead as the Christmas holiday thins participation. If this is the season of goodwill, investors are lapping it up. Global equity markets are finishing a strong year on a high note. Record highs were recorded in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600. …
Investors have worked themselves into a lather. Equities crashed in Q4 last year amid on corporate earnings and concerns about growth. The Fed’s tightening decision in December was made unanimously. The above-trend growth, the preferred inflation measure was near target, unemployment was the lowest in a generation and real rates were historically low. There are …
According to legend, the person who unraveled the Gordian Knot would rule the world. No one succeeded until Alexandar the Great took his mighty sword and sliced the knot in half. A young boy saw him afterward, crying on the steps of the Temple of Apollo. “Why are you crying?” the boy asked, “You just …
Output is a function of how many hours are being worked and productivity. Ahead of tomorrow’s US employment report, let’s look closer at these two variables. The average weekly hours worked in the US has been fairly steady in recent years. The average over the past year through March was 34.4 hours, and the three-year …
Domestic issues have dominated the news of the first 50 days of the Trump Administration. With the German Chancellor’s trip to Washington tomorrow, Secretary of State Tillerson in Asia, and the G20 meeting, foreign affairs may knock the debate about the US budget and health care off the headlines. Investors and policymakers appear aware that …
If there is One Thing Investors and Foreign Officials should Know about the US… Read More »