US

The Ant and the Grasshopper: A Window into Macro Part II

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Regardless of the dollar’s role and function in the world economy and the halls of finance, in the near and intermediate terms, investors and businesses are more concerned with foreign exchange prices.  The greenback has fallen out of favor. Its main supports, like wide interest rate differentials, favorable growth differentials, and political certainty if not stability, …

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The Ant and the Grasshopper: A Window into Macro Part I

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Spurred by a few op-ed pieces and a couple of investment bank “research” notes, the mainstream and social media have been talking about others talking about the dollar losing its reserve status or its larger role in the global economy.  Few appear to really think it is likely in anything that approaches the time horizon …

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Macro Dynamic Remains the Same but the Calendar gets Busy

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The economic calendar and central bank meeting diaries are busier in the week ahead.  The highlights include three G7 central bank meetings (the Bank of Japan, the Bank Canada, and the European Central Bank), Chinese Q2 GDP, and the first look at US July survey data (Empire and Philadelphia Fed).  The US also reports June …

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Four No’s

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Sometimes it is easier to have a sense of what will not happen, rather than a view of what will happen.  No Negative Rates in the US:  Nearly every Federal Reserve official has argued against the deployment of negative interest rates in the US.  It is also not completely clear that the same Congressional authorization …

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Sources of Imbalance and the Pushback Against New Divergence

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The US dollar’s surge alongside gold has eclipsed the equity market rally as the key development in the capital markets.   Even the traditional seemingly safe-haven yen was no match for the greenback.  The dollar appeared to have been rolling over in Q4 19, as the sentiment surveys in Europe improved, Japanese officials seemingly thought the …

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The Turn

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The year is winding down quietly, and the last week of 2019 is likely to be more of the same.  The general mood of the market is quite different than a year ago.  Then investors had marked down equities dramatically amid fears of what was perceived as a synchronized downturn.  Now with additional monetary easing …

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