Yen and US Yields

Since the US election nearly a month ago, the Japanese yen has been the
weakest performing major currency.
  It has fallen 7.5% against the US
dollar.  

At the risk of oversimplifying, there is one major drag on the yen, and that is rising US interest
rates.  Consider that the correlation between the US 10-year generic yield
and the dollar-yen exchange rate.  The correlation between the level of US rates and the exchange rate is near 0.98
over the past 60 days.  It appears to be the highest since at least
1990.  

When we run the correlation on the basis
of
the percentage change, the correlation drops to almost 0.60. 

This is still the upper end of where the
correlation has been over the past decade.  In the last five years, it has
been above 0.70 only a couple of times.  

The correlation between the yen and US yields seems tighter than between
the yen and the interest rate differential. 
The correlation between
the percent change of differential between US and Japanese 10-year interest
rates and the dollar-yen exchange rate is around 0.57, near the lowest level
four months.  The correlation on the level of the yen and the rate
differential is at 0.97, which is the upper end of the multi-years
range.   

How to reconcile these correlation studies?  The interest rate
differential is important, but most recently the spread is driven by the US
side of the equation.  Specifically, over the past month, the US 10-year
yield has risen 66 bp, and the Japanese
10-year yield has risen almost 10
bp.  

Despite the rise in the US (and
Europe and Australian yields compared with Japan over the past month, Japanese
investors have not been significant buyers of foreign bonds
. Drawing from the weekly MOF data, we find that four-week
average in November is JPY231 bln.
The four-week average in October was
JPY313 bln.  The average of the last four weeks in September was JPY327
bln.  In August, it was JPY688 and July;
Japan
bought an average of JPY1.3 trillion a week in foreign bonds.
 

 Foreign investors have returned to Japanese equities.  In
the year through November 25, foreign investors have sold an average of JPY129
bln of Japanese equities.  However, over the past four weeks, foreigners
have bought an average of JPY308 bln.  This
is
the highest four-week average in seven months.    To
be sure, buying Japanese shares does not mean taking on yen exposure.  The
interest rate differentials (forwards) and the cross currency basis swap provide
powerful incentives to hedge the long yen exposure back into dollars. 
Over the past month the Nikkei is off 1.4%, but if hedged back into the dollar, the return is 8% plus the credit for
the hedge.  

With the benefit of hindsight, we can see how the dollar carved out a low
around JPY100.
  It took three-four months to accomplish it. 
Recall that the greenback peaked at almost JPY126 in early June 2015.  The
rally has brought the dollar back to almost JPY115.   The JPY115.60
area corresponds to the 61.8% retracement of the large down move.  

Technical indicators are beginning to flash a yellow light, suggesting
caution is in order.
  Perhaps a tell was that for the first time in a
year, the speculators in the futures market as of last Tuesday we net short
yen.  The RSI and Slow Stochastics did not confirm last week’s dollar
highs.  The bearish divergence may make momentum traders a bit
cautious.  Similarly, although US 10-year yields are firm today, the
technical indicators warn of consolidation or correction.  The RSI and
Slow Stochastics did not confirm last week’s yield high, and the MACDs appear poised to turn lower.  Last week,
the 10-year yield approached 2.50%.  The kind of correction we anticipate
would push the yield a little below 2.30%.  

Disclaimer

Share this post

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on pinterest
Share on print
Share on email