Euro and Yen Outlook

Analysts are also more bullish the yen than the dollar as the similar chart below illustrates.

Based on current volatility, the dollar will likely (74.3%) be between about JPY99.90 and JPY119.10 in 12-months (blue lines).  The probability distribution is represented by the red dotted line. Based on current interest rate differentials and a spot rate of JPY113.15, the 12-month forward is approximately JP109.50 (purple line).  The median among analysts’ forecasts is JPY108.50 (orange line).

The risk is that the dollar is more resilient than expected.  The combination of yield curve control (10-year bond yield is now capped at 20 bp) and the reduced float (as the BOJ owns so much already) has seen the BOJ scale back new purchases of bonds (though the recent equity market decline has seen it step up its ETF purchases).  The economy is struggling to maintain positive momentum and this is ahead of a sales tax hike next October (from 8% to 10%).  In the run=up to the tax increase, there may be some durable goods purchases, but payback will be quick. 

Share this post

Share on facebook
Share on google
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on pinterest
Share on print
Share on email