Here is a succinct four-bullet summary of key considerations behind seven currencies:
Rising US rates in absolute terms and relative to other countries,
coupled with the policy-mix and US tax reform are the main drivers.
The market has nearly completely discounted three more Fed hikes by the
end of next year, while the Fed has signaled that four hikes may be appropriate.
Despite the fiscal stimulus and robust economy, several headwinds are
emerging, including trade, interest-rate sensitive sectors such as housing and
auto sales, and the dramatic rise in oil prices–(100-day moving average has
risen 30% since the start of the year.
Midterm elections are unlikely to change the trajectory of US